Madeira’s Strong Dependence on European Stability
Russia’s unimaginably brutal war against Ukraine, while geographically distant, poses a significant threat to Europe as a whole. A Russian victory would not only destabilize the geopolitical landscape but could also unleash severe economic and social consequences across the European Union (EU). Madeira, as an island that depends heavily on European stability, would be deeply impacted by the chain reaction that follows.
Destabilization of NATO: A Direct Threat to Security
The pillar of Europe’s security is NATO, the military alliance that has maintained peace across the continent for decades. However, a Russian victory in Ukraine could expose cracks within NATO and weaken its collective defense capabilities. This destabilization would create insecurity among EU countries, particularly those closest to Russia’s borders, such as Poland and the Baltic states.
A Russian victory in Ukraine is highly likely to destroy NATO, at least in its current form.
RUSI - the world's oldest and the UK's leading defence and security think tank
A weakened NATO would significantly compromise Europe’s ability to defend its members, making the EU as a whole more vulnerable to future aggression. If such a crack, like an invasion of the Suwałki Gap manifests, no NATO country will be reassured nor feel safe anymore. For Madeira, which relies on a stable European security environment, this would be a troubling development. Although the island is geographically far from Eastern Europe, the destabilization of NATO would erode the overall security that Portugal benefits from. In the event of further conflicts or escalations, a less cohesive NATO might struggle to respond quickly, leaving all European countries, including Portugal and its islands, more vulnerable to external threats.
Strengthening Populist Movements & Undermining EU Cohesion
Russia’s success aims to strengthen populist and nationalist movements within Europe that have already shown sympathy for Moscow's authoritarian model. These movements thrive on division and distrust, often advocating for reduced EU cooperation or even full withdrawal from the Union. With the rise of populism, European unity would come under increasing pressure, as differing opinions on how to handle Russia and internal issues deepen the rift between member states.
In Madeira, this weakening of EU cohesion would be felt through economic channels. The island is heavily integrated into the EU’s economic structure, benefiting from EU funds, trade agreements, and tourism facilitated by the Union’s stability. A rise in populism undermines these benefits, as nations turn inward and focus less on shared European projects that Madeira relies on. A fractured EU will struggle to maintain its economic stability, leaving Madeira exposed to the economic fallout of a less integrated Europe.
The surge in migrants this year coincides with Putin’s overall goals in the war against Ukraine, which he hopes to freeze on favorable terms as the Russian military has suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties and faces a logistical and labor shortage. The domino effect the Kremlin hopes to achieve is overwhelming the social welfare systems of European Union members. From there, Moscow hopes tensions between locals and migrants inflame and trigger the rise of far-right populist governments with a pro-Russian agenda, as seen with the current political climate in Hungary and Slovakia.
Mass Displacement and Social Tensions
Most likely Russia’s strongest weapon: A successful Russian invasion will lead to mass displacements of Ukrainians, with millions of refugees seeking safety across Europe. Russia has already weaponized refugee crises in the past, using mass displacement to destabilize European countries and create friction among EU members. A flood of refugees would likely exacerbate social tensions, as countries struggle to cope with the influx.
For Madeira, though not directly impacted by large-scale refugee arrivals, the social and economic consequences would still be felt. The EU's resources would be stretched thin as member states divert funds to address the refugee crisis, potentially reducing financial support to regions like Madeira. Moreover, the economic strain of supporting refugees would likely lead to cuts in social programs and services, increasing discontent and social tensions even in countries distant from the conflict zone.
Loss of Global Influence for Europe
After the collapse of Afghanistan, a Russian victory would be another severe blow to the West’s standing on the global stage, sending a signal to the world that the EU is incapable of defending its own backyard. This loss of influence would weaken Europe’s ability to act as a cohesive global power, diminishing its leverage in international trade, diplomacy, and security matters. It would further send a strong signal to China which is waiting for the right moment to aggress Taiwan.
For Madeira, a weakened Europe means reduced bargaining power in global markets, which could affect everything from trade agreements to international tourism. As Europe’s influence wanes, Madeira’s economy, already dependent on external forces, would become more vulnerable to disruptions in global supply chains, market volatility, and reduced tourism flows, further jeopardizing its economic stability.
Economic Uncertainty and Its Impact on Madeira’s Tourism
One of the most immediate concerns for Madeira is the potential long-term impact of economic uncertainty caused by prolonged conflict in Europe. Tourism, which is a critical driver of Madeira’s economy, would suffer as European tourists would face higher living costs, job uncertainty, and security concerns. With Madeira’s economy relying strongly on tourism like few other regions in Europe, severe economic long-term consequences are to be expected. If Russia’s invasion leads to sustained instability, European travelers might cut back on discretionary spending, including vacations. The extended period of economic uncertainty could see fewer tourists visiting Madeira, impacting hotels, restaurants, and local businesses that depend heavily on tourism. The island's economic well-being is tightly linked to a stable, prosperous Europe.
Energy and Trade Disruptions Will Hit Madeira
Being an island, Madeira is not self-sufficient and depends heavily on imports from mainland Europe. A Russian victory will lead to disruptions in European supply chains, either due to new sanctions, trade restrictions, or increased global instability. Any breakdown in European trade has the potential to directly impact Madeira’s access to essential goods, ranging from food to manufactured products. Further, as global energy markets react to geopolitical tensions, Madeira could experience sharp increases in fuel prices. Energy costs are already a major concern for island regions, and the higher transportation costs to Madeira would likely drive inflation.
Higher Prices and Decline in Purchasing Power
A victorious Russia may be triggering new rounds of economic sanctions and countermeasures, pushing prices higher across Europe and Madeira, where imported goods make up a large portion of consumer products. In an already fragile economic environment, these higher prices would reduce the purchasing power of locals, further compounding the financial struggles for families and businesses alike.
In every region of the world, democracy is under attack by populist leaders and groups that reject pluralism and demand unchecked power to advance the particular interests of their supporters.
Decline of Democracy and Freedom
Lastly, a successful Russian invasion of Ukraine will strengthen authoritarian regimes in Europe and around the world. It would weaken the resolve of democratic nations. This would likely result in a global decline in democracy, as Russia’s victory would send a message that force and coercion can prevail over diplomacy and democratic governance. For Madeira and Portugal, which pride themselves on democratic values and freedoms, this would be a disturbing development. The erosion of democratic ideals across Europe could lead to more authoritarian governance in some countries, reducing freedoms, restricting civil rights, and further undermining European unity.
Global freedom declined for an 18th consecutive year in 2023 as political rights and civil liberties deteriorated in 52 countries, representing a fifth of the world’s population
This War Is Your Concern
The war in Ukraine may seem distant from Madeira, but the ripple effects of a Russian victory will affect the island’s future. From the destabilization of NATO and the EU to economic disruptions and rising populism, Madeira stands to suffer from the fallout of a fractured, weakened Europe. As Europe’s global influence wanes and internal divisions grow, the social and economic stability that Madeira depends on could be jeopardized. This conflict, far from being a local issue, has the potential to reshape the global order in ways that reach even the most distant corners of the continent.
Do not stay silent about Russian atrocities. Stand up for democracy, human rights, and freedom of speech before those who despise them take them away from you. Nothing is guaranteed, nothing is granted, but everything is in our hands, still!
Care for a share?
Comments